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Southeast Asia

Jun 30, 2006

Thai politics stuck in the mud
By Richard Ehrlich

BANGKOK - Thailand's political future just got cloudier. A committee from the Attorney General's Office on Tuesday ruled that caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's political party, the biggest opposition party and three smaller parties all violated election laws and recommended the five should be dissolved.

The Constitution Court is expected to make a final judgment on the explosive recommendation in the coming months, threatening to plunge Thailand's already chaotic politics into total disarray. Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej on April 26 endorsed the judiciary as the best way to resolve the country's political impasse between Thaksin and his opponents. If so, it promises to
be a drawn-out process that will leave the country without a functioning government for months.

A series of widely attended street protests this year rocked Thaksin's government, forcing his hand to dissolve parliament and declare snap elections in April. The main opposition Democrat Party boycotted the polls.

Though Thaksin's party won an overwhelming majority, parliament could not be convened as it did not have the full complement of elected members because of election rules that require candidates who run unopposed to win at least 20% of a constituency's eligible votes. Several candidates from Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party failed to clear that hurdle (ballots in Thailand have a "none of the above" option, and many disgruntled voters took advantage of it in April) and the election results have since been annulled.

Bhumibol, meanwhile, silently resisted calls from the opposition and anti-Thaksin demonstrators to resolve the crisis and hand-pick an interim prime minister.

Significantly, Thai Rak Thai stands accused of financing and fronting small parties in a number of constituencies to help its candidates get around the 20% rule. The Democrats, meanwhile, face charges of subverting the democratic process through their decision to boycott the election and encourage voters to leave their ballots blank. The looming threat of dissolving both parties sounds a dire warning to what was once one of Southeast Asia's most hopeful democratic experiments, despite widespread allegations against politicians of vote-buying, corruption and fraud. The current imbroglio indicates that years of constitution-mandated political reforms have failed to take root, and the next government will be tasked with overseeing an overhaul of the national charter.

Thaksin's party has already attempted to distance itself from Defense Minister Thammarak Isarangura, the main figure in the electoral scandal who some senior Thai Rak Thai figures have insinuated was acting in his personal capacity and not as a party member. Political analysts note that a ruling against Thai Rak Thai would merely result in its top leaders forming new political parties or jumping ship to smaller existing parties.

Prone to compromise
Thailand's Constitution Court has on at least two crucial occasions ruled in Thaksin's favor. In August 2001, the court overturned corruption charges leveled against Thaksin by the National Counter Corruption Commission, which if upheld would have barred him from holding office for five years. This year the court refused to hear an impeachment petition against Thaksin lodged by a group of senators, as allowed by the constitution.

Some legal analysts believe the Constitution Court could opt for a compromise decision, banishing a select few senior Thai Rak Thai and Democrat members from politics for five years, but falling short of total dissolution of the country's two leading political parties.

Still, the impending hearings put the caretaker government's proposed October 15 general election in serious doubt. Political analysts are watching for indications that the stress and strain of the political meltdown could lead to infighting and a potential splintering of Thaksin's party, which held 375 of 500 seats in parliament before the April general election.

Thaksin, who rose to power in a landslide electoral win in 2001, and was re-elected in February 2005, recently resumed his role as caretaker prime minister after taking a month hiatus from politics.

He acted unperturbed by the ruling from the Attorney General's Office. "The party has confidence in its innocence. As a legal entity, this party has never made a decision that is immoral."

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva also maintained his party's innocence. "We know what we are fighting against, and we know it isn't easy. We will fight and maintain righteousness."

If, as expected, Attorney General Pachara Yutithamdamrong endorses his committee's unanimous decision, the case will go to the Constitution Court to rule on whether the parties should be dissolved for violating the Political Party Act, which forbids "subverting the democratic system, acquiring executive power by unconstitutional means and threatening national security, public order, or ethics and morality".

If convicted, the parties' leaders, including Thaksin and Abhisit, and other top members, could be blocked from holding executive party posts for five years. However, they could still run as parliamentary candidates and run the government by switching to other parties, creating new parties or sitting as independents - which opens the potential for Thaksin to remain prime minister.

Still, the Constitution Court case is expected to be hotly contested on both sides of the country's widening political divide.

"If Thai Rak Thai is to be accused of hiring small parties to contest the April 2 elections, you need uncontestable evidence and proof beyond a shred of doubt that the party leader was involved or, in writing, asked someone to hire the parties for him, and we understand there is none," said Kuthep Saikrachang, a Thai Rak Thai party leader.

Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based journalist from San Francisco, California. He has reported news from Asia since 1978 and is co-author of Hello My Big Big Honey!, a non-fiction book of investigative journalism. He received Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism's Foreign Correspondents Award.

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